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ABANDON SHIP!: Toyota most traded OEM to jump from ICE to BEV

528 Views 11 Replies 5 Participants Last post by bufkey, 1 mo ago

Blu Angel

Discussion Starter · 1 mo ago

The the 2nd consecutive year, Toyota drivers are abandoning the Toyota "Ship"
to cruise with next generation Electric Vehicle manufacturers

TOP OEM brands to abandon the ICE vehicle market
1) Toyota Motors : 12 % trade-ins for BEV market
2) Ford Motors : 8 % trade-ins for BEV market
3) BMW Motors : 8 % trade-ins for BEV market
4) Honda Motors : 7 % trade-ins for BEV market

To summarize, MANY MANY petrol owners are "jumping ship" and buying BEV vehicles.
The second most surprising fact I see that SUV petrol vehicles are traded in for BEV sedans!

https://www.carmax.com/articles/rising-consumer-interest-in-electric-vehicles

https://jalopnik.com/toyota-owners-trade-cars-for-evs-more-than-other-brands-1850386992

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Dark-Fx

· #2 · 1 mo ago

Probably because there are plenty of boring Telsas for all the boring Toyota drivers.

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Frank Blissett

· #3 · 1 mo ago

Thinking about it, it makes a certain amount of sense. Toyota built a customer base on selling hybrids to folks who valued efficiency - and have failed to adapt to changing technology to that end.

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Blu Angel

Discussion Starter · #4 · 1 mo ago

Dark-Fx said:
Probably because there are plenty of boring Telsas for all the boring Toyota drivers.

Ÿou may be correct ......
Why does this mean once GigaMexico is live and producing Tesla 2 compacts for $25,000 US?

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Dark-Fx

· #5 · 1 mo ago

Blu Angel said:
Ÿou may be correct ......
Why does this mean once GigaMexico is live and producing Tesla 2 compacts for $25,000 US?

Cheaper EVs can't come soon enough. I have no interest in them, but if they are super competitive with similarly priced ICE vehicles it's a no-brainer.

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226

· #6 · 1 mo ago

What that data tells you is that Toyota's are actually being traded in at a lower than average rate for EVs.

Assume most of those trade ins are 5-10 years old. What was Toyota's US market share from 2013 - 2018? An average of 14% So 14% of vehicles of trade-in age are Toyotas. So if toyotas were trading at just the industry average rate they would represent 14% but instead they only represent 12%.

Now, there are a bunch of other things to think about related to vehicle classes etc. which would make you realize that Toyota EV conversions as even lower that that data would suggest. But it all gets boring and the basic points is obvious. There is nothing whatsoever to see in this data other than Ford and GM are trading in for EVs at well below the national average, Toyota and Honda at a little below the national average, and BMW customers at ~3X the national average (Its market share was less than 3% 2013-2018). The data says that it is actually BMW that is hemmoraging ICE customers at an astonishing rate. (Which everyone already knew.)

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Blu Angel

Discussion Starter · #7 · 1 mo ago

@BayouCityBob

Toyota and Honda represent 29% of the Tesla Conquest Sales....
The highest amongst the OEM petrol manufacturers
I cannot find the actual breakdown between Toyota and Honda Conquests

"The top five Model Y conquests are
1) Lexus RX
2) Honda CR-V,
3) Toyota RAV4,
4) Honda Odyssey,
5) Honda Accord.

The top five Tesla Model 3 conquests are:
1)Honda Civic,
2) Honda Accord,
3)Toyota Camry,
4)Toyota RAV4,
5)Honda CR-V,

Study: Toyota and Honda owners are defecting to Tesla

Nearly 29% of Tesla buyers come directly from a Honda or Toyota, a study finds, while neither of those brands are making EVs widely available.

www.greencarreports.com

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Blu Angel

Discussion Starter · #8 · 1 mo ago

Automotive News highlights the eight automotive brands that are struggling to retain customers.
Car shoppers (referred to as "nomads") tend to leave see OEM brands the most: (alphabetical order)
Acura, Audi, Dodge, GMC, Mazda, Mercedes-Benz, Ram, and Volkswagen

However, Tesla conquests are MOSTLY Toyota & Honda

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Frank Blissett

· #9 · 1 mo ago

BayouCityBob said:
What that data tells you is that Toyota's are actually being traded in at a lower than average rate for EVs.

Assume most of those trade ins are 5-10 years old. What was Toyota's US market share from 2013 - 2018? An average of 14% So 14% of vehicles of trade-in age are Toyotas. So if toyotas were trading at just the industry average rate they would represent 14% but instead they only represent 12%.

Now, there are a bunch of other things to think about related to vehicle classes etc. which would make you realize that Toyota EV conversions as even lower that that data would suggest. But it all gets boring and the basic points is obvious. There is nothing whatsoever to see in this data other than Ford and GM are trading in for EVs at well below the national average, Toyota and Honda at a little below the national average, and BMW customers at ~3X the national average (Its market share was less than 3% 2013-2018). The data says that it is actually BMW that is hemmoraging ICE customers at an astonishing rate. (Which everyone already knew.)

Thank you for digging into the nuance. ... I'll add, though, that for Ford and BMW, trading in for an EV will not always mean trading in for another manufacturer. Some portion of those will be trading in their Escape for a Mach-E.

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Blu Angel

Discussion Starter · #10 · 1 mo ago (Edited)

@BayouCityBob
Now back to the premise....Toyota & Honda are LOSING the greatest marketshare Tesla
Up until Sept 2022,
Toyota loss share to Tesla: 15.5 %. (29,233 Toyota behicle loss)
Honda loss share to Tesla : 13.3 %. (25,403 Honda vehicle loss)

New EV entries nibbling away at Tesla EV share

Toyota and Honda ICE owners defecting for others’ EVs

www.spglobal.com

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226

· #11 · 1 mo ago

Let me share how I interpret the data... I acknowledge the data above (which I had seen previously) and it is completely consistent with the point I made above that Toyota and Honda are being traded in at a slightly lower than expected rate while the luxury brands are being traded in at a higher rate. To understand what the "expected" rate would be you must start with each brand's market share during the trade-in-relevant years in the relevant vehicle segments. Here is a list of the top selling sedans and SUVs in California in 2017:
1. Honda Civic 94,525
2. Honda Accord 72,037
3. Toyota Camry 65,671
4. Toyota Corolla 55,738
5. Toyota RAV4 51,054
6. Honda CR-V 42,449
7. Toyota Prius 40,735
Note I am excluding large-pickups because there are no equivalent Teslas on the market in 2022. If you need a pickup, you are not buying a Tesla

Now, if one in ten new car buyers from every single brand were going to buy a new Tesla in 2022, where would these "conquests" come from? Why Toyota and Honda, of course. They absolutely dominate the market for the sedan and SUV segment. No surprise.

As a super-quick bit of math, in 2017 there were 2.2 million new vehicles sold in CA of which ~500k Trucks 1.7 million Tesla segment vehicles. Just the models in the ten list above give you a 25% market share, and, of course, they have a great many more models. Toyota and Honda buyers are moving to Tesla in your graph above at at rate consistent with / slightly below their market share. It just so happens that they have a huge ICE market share so they represent a huge percentage conquests. Where Tesla has been pulling above market share if from the Luxury brands.

But, as I said, if you see the data differently then okay by me. That is how I interpret the data. I suspect this is going to devolve into a fruitless argument so I am going to bow out from here.

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bufkey

· #12 · 1 mo ago

BayouCityBob said:
Let me share how I interpret the data... I acknowledge the data above (which I had seen previously) and it is completely consistent with the point I made above that Toyota and Honda are being traded in at a slightly lower than expected rate while the luxury brands are being traded in at a higher rate. To understand what the "expected" rate would be you must start with each brand's market share during the trade-in-relevant years in the relevant vehicle segments. Here is a list of the top selling sedans and SUVs in California in 2017:
1. Honda Civic 94,525
2. Honda Accord 72,037
3. Toyota Camry 65,671
4. Toyota Corolla 55,738
5. Toyota RAV4 51,054
6. Honda CR-V 42,449
7. Toyota Prius 40,735
Note I am excluding large-pickups because there are no equivalent Teslas on the market in 2022. If you need a pickup, you are not buying a Tesla

Now, if one in ten new car buyers from every single brand were going to buy a new Tesla in 2022, where would these "conquests" come from? Why Toyota and Honda, of course. They absolutely dominate the market for the sedan and SUV segment. No surprise.

As a super-quick bit of math, in 2017 there were 2.2 million new vehicles sold in CA of which ~500k Trucks 1.7 million Tesla segment vehicles. Just the models in the ten list above give you a 25% market share, and, of course, they have a great many more models. Toyota and Honda buyers are moving to Tesla in your graph above at at rate consistent with / slightly below their market share. It just so happens that they have a huge ICE market share so they represent a huge percentage conquests. Where Tesla has been pulling above market share if from the Luxury brands.

But, as I said, if you see the data differently then okay by me. That is how I interpret the data. I suspect this is going to devolve into a fruitless argument so I am going to bow out from here.

@BayouCityBob I agree your interpretation is more relevant. The more accurate comparison formula should be:
(percentage of a specific ICE model converting to BEV)/(percentage of that same ICE model in the ICE total)

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