ABANDON SHIP!: Toyota most traded OEM to jump from ICE to BEV

What that data tells you is that Toyota's are actually being traded in at a lower than average rate for EVs.

Assume most of those trade ins are 5-10 years old. What was Toyota's US market share from 2013 - 2018? An average of 14% So 14% of vehicles of trade-in age are Toyotas. So if toyotas were trading at just the industry average rate they would represent 14% but instead they only represent 12%.

Now, there are a bunch of other things to think about related to vehicle classes etc. which would make you realize that Toyota EV conversions as even lower that that data would suggest. But it all gets boring and the basic points is obvious. There is nothing whatsoever to see in this data other than Ford and GM are trading in for EVs at well below the national average, Toyota and Honda at a little below the national average, and BMW customers at ~3X the national average (Its market share was less than 3% 2013-2018). The data says that it is actually BMW that is hemmoraging ICE customers at an astonishing rate. (Which everyone already knew.)

Let me share how I interpret the data... I acknowledge the data above (which I had seen previously) and it is completely consistent with the point I made above that Toyota and Honda are being traded in at a slightly lower than expected rate while the luxury brands are being traded in at a higher rate. To understand what the "expected" rate would be you must start with each brand's market share during the trade-in-relevant years in the relevant vehicle segments. Here is a list of the top selling sedans and SUVs in California in 2017:
1. Honda Civic 94,525
2. Honda Accord 72,037
3. Toyota Camry 65,671
4. Toyota Corolla 55,738
5. Toyota RAV4 51,054
6. Honda CR-V 42,449
7. Toyota Prius 40,735
Note I am excluding large-pickups because there are no equivalent Teslas on the market in 2022. If you need a pickup, you are not buying a Tesla

Now, if one in ten new car buyers from every single brand were going to buy a new Tesla in 2022, where would these "conquests" come from? Why Toyota and Honda, of course. They absolutely dominate the market for the sedan and SUV segment. No surprise.

As a super-quick bit of math, in 2017 there were 2.2 million new vehicles sold in CA of which ~500k Trucks 1.7 million Tesla segment vehicles. Just the models in the ten list above give you a 25% market share, and, of course, they have a great many more models. Toyota and Honda buyers are moving to Tesla in your graph above at at rate consistent with / slightly below their market share. It just so happens that they have a huge ICE market share so they represent a huge percentage conquests. Where Tesla has been pulling above market share if from the Luxury brands.

But, as I said, if you see the data differently then okay by me. That is how I interpret the data. I suspect this is going to devolve into a fruitless argument so I am going to bow out from here.