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ABANDON SHIP!: Toyota most traded OEM to jump from ICE to BEV

525 Views 11 Replies 5 Participants Last post by  bufkey
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The the 2nd consecutive year, Toyota drivers are abandoning the Toyota "Ship"
to cruise with next generation Electric Vehicle manufacturers

TOP OEM brands to abandon the ICE vehicle market
1) Toyota Motors : 12 % trade-ins for BEV market
2) Ford Motors : 8 % trade-ins for BEV market
3) BMW Motors : 8 % trade-ins for BEV market
4) Honda Motors : 7 % trade-ins for BEV market

To summarize, MANY MANY petrol owners are "jumping ship" and buying BEV vehicles.
The second most surprising fact I see that SUV petrol vehicles are traded in for BEV sedans!

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Let me share how I interpret the data... I acknowledge the data above (which I had seen previously) and it is completely consistent with the point I made above that Toyota and Honda are being traded in at a slightly lower than expected rate while the luxury brands are being traded in at a higher rate. To understand what the "expected" rate would be you must start with each brand's market share during the trade-in-relevant years in the relevant vehicle segments. Here is a list of the top selling sedans and SUVs in California in 2017:
1. Honda Civic 94,525
2. Honda Accord 72,037
3. Toyota Camry 65,671
4. Toyota Corolla 55,738
5. Toyota RAV4 51,054
6. Honda CR-V 42,449
7. Toyota Prius 40,735
Note I am excluding large-pickups because there are no equivalent Teslas on the market in 2022. If you need a pickup, you are not buying a Tesla

Now, if one in ten new car buyers from every single brand were going to buy a new Tesla in 2022, where would these "conquests" come from? Why Toyota and Honda, of course. They absolutely dominate the market for the sedan and SUV segment. No surprise.

As a super-quick bit of math, in 2017 there were 2.2 million new vehicles sold in CA of which ~500k Trucks 1.7 million Tesla segment vehicles. Just the models in the ten list above give you a 25% market share, and, of course, they have a great many more models. Toyota and Honda buyers are moving to Tesla in your graph above at at rate consistent with / slightly below their market share. It just so happens that they have a huge ICE market share so they represent a huge percentage conquests. Where Tesla has been pulling above market share if from the Luxury brands.

But, as I said, if you see the data differently then okay by me. That is how I interpret the data. I suspect this is going to devolve into a fruitless argument so I am going to bow out from here.
@BayouCityBob I agree your interpretation is more relevant. The more accurate comparison formula should be:
(percentage of a specific ICE model converting to BEV)/(percentage of that same ICE model in the ICE total)
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