ABANDON SHIP!: Toyota most traded OEM to jump from ICE to BEV

BayouCityBob said:

Let me share how I interpret the data... I acknowledge the data above (which I had seen previously) and it is completely consistent with the point I made above that Toyota and Honda are being traded in at a slightly lower than expected rate while the luxury brands are being traded in at a higher rate. To understand what the "expected" rate would be you must start with each brand's market share during the trade-in-relevant years in the relevant vehicle segments. Here is a list of the top selling sedans and SUVs in California in 2017:
1. Honda Civic 94,525
2. Honda Accord 72,037
3. Toyota Camry 65,671
4. Toyota Corolla 55,738
5. Toyota RAV4 51,054
6. Honda CR-V 42,449
7. Toyota Prius 40,735
Note I am excluding large-pickups because there are no equivalent Teslas on the market in 2022. If you need a pickup, you are not buying a Tesla

Now, if one in ten new car buyers from every single brand were going to buy a new Tesla in 2022, where would these "conquests" come from? Why Toyota and Honda, of course. They absolutely dominate the market for the sedan and SUV segment. No surprise.

As a super-quick bit of math, in 2017 there were 2.2 million new vehicles sold in CA of which ~500k Trucks 1.7 million Tesla segment vehicles. Just the models in the ten list above give you a 25% market share, and, of course, they have a great many more models. Toyota and Honda buyers are moving to Tesla in your graph above at at rate consistent with / slightly below their market share. It just so happens that they have a huge ICE market share so they represent a huge percentage conquests. Where Tesla has been pulling above market share if from the Luxury brands.

But, as I said, if you see the data differently then okay by me. That is how I interpret the data. I suspect this is going to devolve into a fruitless argument so I am going to bow out from here.

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