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A lovely synopsis of all things great about the 2023 Fisker Ocean.
I rather enjoyed this article and it’s concise description of its qualities

Enjoy the read:
 
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@baydreamer
ooh…you’re much more technically inclined that I!
 
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I think they're trying to manage expectations here a little bit so they don't over promise. They have 40k reservations right now. Even assuming they convert all those to orders (which they won't) and that production doesn't ramp up to 5k/mo until January, that's still only 8 months to build all the currently reserved cars (40k/5k = 8 months). So August-ish? I'm confident we'll see Ultras by late summer/early fall 2023.
 

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Yes, it is a real guessing game isn't it. So let's take the 40k reservations for now which seems to be the magic number to be using for this exercise. I'm not sure, but I think that # also includes the PEAR as well? Then, you can basically eliminate the Sport model until late, late 2023 or most likely 2024 as it looks right now. So, if you take out the Sports and the PEARS, let's say that leaves you with maybe what? Perhaps around 30k (just a guess...use any # you like) reservations for Ones, Extremes and Ultras? So, what is the "conversion factor" (reservation turns into an actual order) for these reservationist? Who knows; but, let's speculate that the conversion factor is 80% (just a guess...use any # you like). So, 80% of 30k would leave a net of 24k One, Extreme and Ultra orders to produce first, and, in that order. Now, again (just guessing...use any # you like), let's suppose Magna can only manage to produce 4k units per month due to supply chain issues, wiring harness shortage, Ukranian war gets worse...whatever...this scenario would only take 6 months (24k/4k=6) to fill all of the 24k orders? If things were to go anything like this, all of us wanting an Ultra model could conceivably have our car produced by around June '23 and perhaps delivered to us here in the USA by late July '23? Like I said, it is a real guessing game!🤔 Anybody else want to play?
 

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Yes, it is a real guessing game isn't it. So let's take the 40k reservations for now which seems to be the magic number to be using for this exercise. I'm not sure, but I think that # also includes the PEAR as well? Then, you can basically eliminate the Sport model until late, late 2023 or most likely 2024 as it looks right now. So, if you take out the Sports and the PEARS, let's say that leaves you with maybe what? Perhaps around 30k (just a guess...use any # you like) reservations for Ones, Extremes and Ultras? So, what is the "conversion factor" (reservation turns into an actual order) for these reservationist? Who knows; but, let's speculate that the conversion factor is 80% (just a guess...use any # you like). So, 80% of 30k would leave a net of 24k One, Extreme and Ultra orders to produce first, and, in that order. Now, again (just guessing...use any # you like), let's suppose Magna can only manage to produce 4k units per month due to supply chain issues, wiring harness shortage, Ukranian war gets worse...whatever...this scenario would only take 6 months (24k/4k=6) to fill all of the 24k orders? If things were to go anything like this, all of us wanting an Ultra model could conceivably have our car produced by around June '23 and perhaps delivered to us here in the USA by late July '23? Like I said, it is a real guessing game!🤔 Anybody else want to play?
@UltraVol You forget to consider the cancellation of reservations which could be 10% of the total numbers. I am confident that Ultra will be made in spring 2023.
 

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@UltraVol You forget to consider the cancellation of reservations which could be 10% of the total numbers. I am confident that Ultra will be made in spring 2023.
Really? How so? My "conversion factor" was 80%, or, 20% cancellation factor if you like. I'd me interested to know how you reached your conclusion "that Ultra will be made in spring 2023."
 

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Really? How so? My "conversion factor" was 80%, or, 20% cancellation factor if you like. I'd me interested to know how you reached your conclusion "that Ultra will be made in spring 2023."
Fisker cannot made only highend version in 2023 and drop all supporters, if they have 40k reservations it is also because there is Ultra and Sport reservations. I really think they will start producing in spring mixed with Extreme and will add Sport later on summer. It's my feeling only.
 

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Fisker cannot made only highend version in 2023 and drop all supporters, if they have 40k reservations it is also because there is Ultra and Sport reservations. I really think they will start producing in spring mixed with Extreme and will add Sport later on summer. It's my feeling only.
Well, it seems to me that your feeling about this production mix requires a high dose of wishful thinking about the Ultra and/or the Sport models. As far as I can tell, Fisker has already announced their plans for production order of their various models and the Ultra and Sport model versions are getting a lower priority than the One and Extreme models. This is supposedly from a statement from Fisker: "Fisker will start manufacturing the Ocean Extreme after completing 5,000 Ocean One units. It will utilize any additional capacity to roll out Ocean Ultra and Ocean Sport units. However, seeing the high demand for the premium models, it doesn’t expect to begin Ocean Sport production until late 2023. Even in the best case, it expects to make the base model in modest volumes by late 2023 and ramp-up in 2024." Furthermore: " Fisker says that it does not plan a price hike in 2022 or 2023, but cannot guarantee that for the orders received after the 40,000 reservation number or vehicles made starting in 2024." Also consider this: "Current reservation holders can pre-order the limited-edition Ocean One on July 1, 2022. Fisker plans to build 5,000 units of this special model starting in November 2022. The company expects to sell out capacity through most of 2023 because of a high interest level in the Ocean One and Ocean Extreme." And finally, here is a stated breakdown of % quantities by model type: "Based on the first 30,000 reservations, 19% ordered the Sport, 38% took the Ultra, and 43% prefered the Extreme or the One." Please refer to the #1 post from Blu Angel above for the complete synopsis in the article he posted.

Even though the Ultra and Sport models makeup 57% percent of the Ocean total reservations, they will be pushed to the back of the production line in order to produce the higher profit One and Extreme units. Of course, that is the best business decision for Fisker, Inc., and, I think that's what any rational CEO would most likely do under the same set of circumstances. Therefore, I have now come to my conclusion that it is an exercise in futility to wish, hope, guess, or otherwise predict when a reservationist could expect to actually have a Fisker Ocean Ultra delivered to his home address. However, I'm quite sure that it will not be Spring of 2023 as things look right now!
 

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@Utravol, Per the article, future reservations of the Extreme between now and at least start of production or even later may slot in ahead to fill in some/all of the cancellations. By your calculations that would be a potential of 6k future Extreme orders to add. This would set back our Ultra and Sport deliveries further by 1-2 months. I'm not sure if I'm interpreting this correctly as the wording in the article is ambiguous.
 

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@Utravol, Per the article, future reservations of the Extreme between now and at least start of production or even later may slot in ahead to fill in some/all of the cancellations. By your calculations that would be a potential of 6k future Extreme orders to add. This would set back our Ultra and Sport deliveries further by 1-2 months. I'm not sure if I'm interpreting this correctly as the wording in the article is ambiguous.
Yes, I agree the article is ambiguous. As usual, we always end back in a "guessing game" scenario because we never seem to have enough factual information to make informed decisions. Maybe that's by design...who knows? In any event, this ambiguous production plan is apparently not shaping up to favor the Ultra or Sport models in any way, shape or form! My patience is beginning to ware very thin.
 
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