[HotIce]

http://instagr.am/p/CdXHSP9LseY/

 

[Bernie]

Wow. That's a bummer. I got a second reservation just a few days ago, thinking I could get the wife a Sport trim. Hopefully this means the first 45000 will actually be able to pick the trim they want if they are closing it for the year.
...time will tell...

 

[HotIce]

Wow. That's a bummer. I got a second reservation just a few days ago, thinking I could get the wife a Sport trim. Hopefully this means the first 45000 will actually be able to pick the trim they want if they are closing it for the year.
...time will tell...

From my understanding, anyone that has placed an order will be contacted when it is their turn to lock in and really place the order. You can choose any trim level you want.

 

[Bernie]

Sorry, I think what I meant was this: with all of the speculation as to whether we would see any Ultra or Sport trims being delivered in 2023 due to the policy of "make Extreme's first", it's good to see that the first 45,000 are locked in and hopefully will have priority over the person that reserves an Extreme trim at 50k, 55k, or 75k in line. With that said, if they miss badly on the target of 50,000 vehicles in 2023 then we could still see Ultra trims slip into 2024. I don't believe that will happen. I'm a realist (delays could happen) but with an optimist slant (hope for the best).

 

[TT97]

It's great that they are at 45k reservations but how are they sold out at that level? The 45k are just reservations and not locked in orders. There will be a certain percentage of reservations that will not convert to sales. They are also targetting 50k production for 2023 so regardless, still above the 45k reserved (although I have only seen the one Automotive News Europe report about the 50k production and never seen anywhere else).

 

[MTN Ranger]

It's great that they are at 45k reservations but how are they sold out at that level? The 45k are just reservations and not locked in orders. There will be a certain percentage of reservations that will not convert to sales. They are also targetting 50k production for 2023 so regardless, still above the 45k reserved (although I have only seen the one Automotive News Europe report about the 50k production and never seen anywhere else).

I'm a little on the negative side when it comes to initial production for a new vehicle. Almost every new car introduction in the last few years has been delayed or resulted in reduced production numbers - whether startup or 100 year old companies. If Fisker gets 40k produced in 2023, I will be impressed. We should come back in 18 months and see who was more accurate!

 

[S7davis]

I think it will take about 2 years for the Ocean to be at a decent production rate. So I am with people I think by 2024 or 2025 the Ocean will be closer to its max production rate. For this year will be lucky if their is 1k - 2k produced in a month. Remember Fisker has hinted that production may start late October but is slated to start November 17th. So they will have at most 1.5 months to produce cars.

Now if we use Ford Mach-E as an example I think the build for 1 car is about a week to 2 weeks. Grant it we have no idea how many cars can be on the line at a time but for argument sake we will say they are allowed to have 20 cars on the line at any given time. So that is 20 cars produced in a week and half to 2 weeks. Now then comes to how many lines Magna is allowing Fisker to use at their factory for production. The first year production will be slow but in about 4 months mid 2023 it will see ramping up as the robots are doing most of the work without supervision. So by 2024 I think they will be at the 15k to 20k a year mark on the ocean but low and behold the next car will be getting produced as well around that time.

 

[Langer]

Yah, I think they will produce somewhere between 20-40,000 in 2023. Of course we are all guessing, but to me it does not look good for us Ultra reservationists in 2023. I hate to be negative on the production numbers but it seems so unlikely that that Fisker will be able able to put out larger volumes when everyone else (except maybe Tesla) is under producing their desired volumes.

Another reason is that Henrik seems to be decreasing the production numbers too. Originally it was 5,000 a month, now it's 50,000 annually which is 4167 a month. He also said on Twitter he was working hard to increase production numbers in second half of 2023. Now he says in 2024. It just seems that he is trying lower expectations. I think we have to be realistic and lower the numbers that Fisker is putting out there. Just my thoughts. I think I'm trying to temper my own expectations so I'm not so disappointed if they miss since the Ultra (me) and Sport reservationists will lose the most time if they under produce.

 

[probrien44]

I think they said 5k oceans a month starting in early 2023.

 

[kxo7000]

Yah, I think they will produce somewhere between 20-40,000 in 2023. Of course we are all guessing, but to me it does not look good for us Ultra reservationists in 2023.

James Picariello

Hi, guys, thanks. So, within the 45,000 reservations, as of May 2, isn’t the associated potential revenue side to be $2.5 billion. So obviously, on cause that an ASP of 56,000. But it sounds as though in the prepared remarks right all of 2023 production could be at that extreme trim price point in the high 60% range. So just wondering can you intact this, what are the build intentions for next year, with the numbers about 50,000. And what that price point could be?

Henrik Fisker

Well, let me just explain, I think that we are using a very conservative way of calculating this $2.5 billion potential revenue, and you're right, they’re using 56,000. And we are using that, because we have looked at certain polls we have taken with our reservation holders. But truly we don't know until we do all our final -- get our final commitments from our customers.

But what we do see is that we probably could make almost all the vehicles extreme, but we have committed to deliver certain amount of base vehicles, it will be low -- there'll be a certain lower volume, because we first are going to fulfill most of the extreme orders, and then some Ultras and they will be delivered in the next year. So I think we have given a conservative guidance, and it could be very well and we go over that.

Source: Fisker Inc. (FSR) CEO Henrik Fisker on Q1 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

In my opinion, I highly doubt that the number of Extreme and One orders dwarf the number of Ultra and Sport orders in the batch of 45000. Even by the end of the year when they will be at about 70K orders. The Extreme orders will not be enough to consume the 50K vehicle contract signed with Magna for 2023. Note that the One's will probably be satisfied in Nov+Dec 2022 and this doesn't eat out of the 2023 50K allotment. In conclusion, in my optimistic opinion, they will build plenty of Ultra's and Sports in 2023.
Picture, this, they start calling the Reservation holders later this year.

"Hello Maam, we are calling from Fisker to configure your reservation. What trim would you like?"
"An Ultra"
"Sorry, we are only configuring Extremes at this point. We'll call you back later."
70,000 calls later ....
"uh oh, we only have 36K Extreme orders"

We will be getting our Ultras in 2023!!

 

[Blu Angel]

Fisker Inc has already stated that approximately Reservation Breakdown:

1) Ocean Extreme/One (43%)
45,000 Reservation x 43% = 19,350 Extreme & Ones

2) Ocean Ultra (38%)
45,000 Reservations x 38% = 17,100 Ultras

These models will be produced first...cash flow matters!

3) Fisker Ocean Sport (19% Reservations)
45,000 x 19% = 8,550 Sports